# FPL Analyzer model benchmarks

Live report: https://www.fpl-analyzer.com/benchmarks · JSON: https://www.fpl-analyzer.com/api/benchmarks · Generated: 2026-10-26T19:40:14.162Z

## Provenance

- Published by: FPL Analyzer
- Results scored against: Official Fantasy Premier League data (fantasy.premierleague.com), a third-party source
- Independence: Forecasts are generated, archived and scored by FPL Analyzer about its own models. This is not an independent third-party evaluation.
- Method: Each forecast is archived before the Gameweek deadline, then compared with the official FPL result for that Gameweek once it has finished.
- Accuracy %: points and BPS forecasts count as correct within a stated tolerance (points within ±2, BPS within ±5); the xMins model counts as correct when its "plays 60+ minutes" call (probability of 50% or more) matched what happened.

## Latest scored accuracy

Completed Gameweeks scored: 5, 6, 7, 8

- xMins Model (Minutes): 87.3% correct 60+ minute calls · Brier 0.097 · MAE 0.16 · RMSE 0.31 · 63.2% lower error than always guessing the average · 2661 player forecasts
- V8 Projections (Points): 81.6% within ±2 pts · MAE 1.10 · RMSE 2.09 · 35.5% lower error than always guessing the average · 2661 player forecasts
- xPts Model · normal FDR (Points): 81.6% within ±2 pts · MAE 1.10 · RMSE 2.09 · 35.5% lower error than always guessing the average · 2661 player forecasts
- xPts Model · Position FDR (Points): 81.5% within ±2 pts · MAE 1.12 · RMSE 2.10 · 33.3% lower error than always guessing the average · 2002 player forecasts
- BPS Model (Bonus): 47.6% within ±5 BPS · MAE 6.60 · RMSE 9.58 · 9.2% lower error than always guessing the average · 2661 player forecasts

## Models

- V8 Projections [v8] — Probabilistic component model with simulated minutes, attacking returns, clean sheets, bonus and discipline.
- V6 Projections [v6] — The V6 projection interface currently calls the V8 component engine. It is not an independently measured model version.
- xPts Model · normal FDR [xpts] — The analyzer's expected points with the official FPL fixture difficulty (FDR). This is the default xPts; it runs on the V8 engine.
- xPts Model · Position FDR [xpts_posfdr] — The same xPts with Position FDR switched on: each fixture is rated by the opponent's last five matches, attack for goalkeepers and defenders, defence for midfielders and forwards, adjusted for home and away (the venue adjustment applies from Gameweek 6). Archived and scored exactly like the normal-FDR version.
- xMins Model [xmins] — Appearance probabilities for 60+ minutes and a shorter appearance. This interface returns probabilities, not a minute count.
- BPS Model [xbps] — Expected BPS from a shrunk positional rate, expected playing share and opponent/venue adjustment. Measured for each player’s first fixture in the target gameweek.
- xBonus Component [xbonus] — Bonus contribution inside the V8 simulation. Separate bonus-award accuracy has not been published.
- Clean-sheet Component [xcs] — Fixture-difficulty and team-context clean-sheet contribution inside V8. Separate calibration results have not been published.

Earlier Gameweeks were not archived before their deadlines and are not scored: scoring them after the fact would use hindsight.